FUNDAMENTAL
1-PANADEMIC :
On the pandemic flu front, we do a similar thing where we look at how the virus is changing - how it changes in birds, how it changes in birds and other species, and to try to see what possible variants there might be, but there might be, and to develop vaccines that can protect against all of the variants we see.
2-EXTREMELY DIFFICULT :
Because flu is continually mutating and changing its genetic code, it is extremely difficult to eradicate. We study the influenza virus, specifically the enzyme that copies the virus's genetic code when it enters our cells. We're particularly interested in how this enzyme does this function and how it inserts changes in a viral genome that lead to the development of new strains for which new vaccinations are neededWe're also curious about what happens when this enzyme messes up how it triggers the innate immune system and contributes to illness.
We have no idea why there hasn't been another pandemic as terrible as the 1918 influenza. Scientists and public health authorities are concerned about the national risk register, which is how our government aims to identify all dangers to civil society in the United Kingdom. There are only two occurrences that can be considered the most catastrophic: a terrorist attack or an influenza epidemic.
3-REAL POSSIBILITY :
Pandemics are a real possibility, as evidenced by the H5 and H7 flu viruses, which have infected almost 2,000 people and killed roughly half of them. With the H7 viruses, there has been some ineffective transmission from human to human, but it hasn't really taken off. There's a real concern that if either of those viruses adapts to transmit well between humans, it could be as bad as the 1918 virus, which is why so much research is being done for the public good to try to understand what's going on, and so much work is being done by people in public health and hospitals to prepare in case something like that happensExperts say it's not a question of if, but when.
4-PERSPECTIVE :
Coming at it from the perspective of a mathematician, it's occurred before and it'll probably happen again. The 1918 pandemic is difficult to study because of a lack of data, but the most recent influenza pandemic we had was in 2009, and we have a lot of solid data from that epidemic. If we can figure out how the 2009 pandemic propagated, we might be able to predict how future pandemics would spread. We won't be able to stop them; however, we can better deploy our efforts to try to limit the number of instances in each locationLooking back a hundred years to the last pandemic also raises the question of what we will be like in terms of flu protection a hundred years from now. Or what steps could we take to protect ourselves in certain situations? We'll very certainly be in a situation where we know a lot more about what viruses are out there and where they're hiding, and surveillance will be much better.
We'll almost certainly be in a stronger position with better treatments and vaccinations because we now know more about the virus and its weaknesses, as well as our immune systems and how to help them fight viruses more effectively. We will come to a conclusion at some pointWe will eventually have a universal flu vaccination that will protect us for the rest of our lives. When this occurs is a different matter entirely. There are numerous approaches and excellent ideas for accomplishing this. There have previously been several attempts at this, and they are pretty advanced.
We have no idea how long it will be in ten years, twenty years, thirty years, or forty years.
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